Asymco's Horace Dediu takes a look at the iPhone's addressable market and calculates that it could double.
iPhone “addresses” about 2.8 billion connections whereas there are about 5.7 billion available connections. Note that this is not users but subscriptions—essentially SIM cards.
Ratios By Region:
● Middle-east/Africa has 29%
● Asia/Pacific is at 39%
● Europe 73%
● The Americas 83%
Countries With Highest Opportunity:
● India: 658 million
● China: 622 million
● Pakistan: 116 million
● Russia: 102 million
● Nigeria: 89 million
Notably, Android does not have these distribution constraints since the various manufacturers using the operating system cover the entire subscriber space.
More details about this analysis can be found at the link below and the topic will be further discussed at Asymconf in January.