iPad shipments to plunge over 50% QoQ in 1Q15F & 2Q15F outlook dim; bodes ill for sales & earnings of suppliers through 1H15F. We forecast iPad shipments will decline 52.7% QoQ in 1Q15 to 10.1mn units, and continue to lose momentum in 2Q15F, dropping another 30-40% QoQ to 7-8mn units. 1H15F shipments around 18mn units, down 40% YoY; 2015F to struggle to top 45mn units, down 30% YoY. We forecast iPad shipments of 18mn units in 1H15… Based on seasonal patterns (shipments rise 10-20% HoH in 2H), we project full-year shipments will struggle to top 45mn units, likely marking a 30% decline.
Apple is expected to unveil a 12.x-inch iPad model this year. While Kuo is confident that the larger tablet will " create an improved user experience", it's not expected to "contribute meaningfully to shipments momentum anytime soon."
Notably, it's not just Apple that is seeing declining tablet shipments. Worldwide tablet shipments recorded a year-over-year decline for the first time since the market's inception in 2010, according to a recent IDC report. Despite this, Apple CEO Tim Cook remained optimistic about the tablet's future during the company's recent earnings call. Cook sees room to grow in especially in the enterprise via its partnership with IBM.
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