Kuo believes Apple will ship 15 million units for the 2015 fiscal year (through September) -- much lower than original expectations. KGI securities also conducted a survey to find that most Apple Watch orders are scheduled to ship in June and so far, over 80% of the orders have been for the 42mm model.
"We have learned that 42mm Apple Watch accounts for 60-70% of production. However, the shipping times of 38mm models are generally earlier than those of 42mm. We believe this is because demand for 38mm watches is significantly below that of 42mm ones. We estimate that 42mm models account for over 80% of sales. Assuming that 42mm and 38mm watches are mainly purchased by men and women respectively, the Apple Watch has attracted mostly men."
Finally Kuo believes that like the original iPhone, the Apple Watch has a lot of room for improvement. Specifically, he believes the Apple Watch lacks killers apps, has insufficient battery life, and suffers from sluggish progressing power.