All of Apple’s past successes were related to human-machine interfaces, such as mouse for Mac, click wheel for iPod, and multi-touch for iPhone and iPad.
Assuming Apple successfully develops AR, we predict the firm will enjoy the following competitive advantages: (1) redefining existing key products and leading competitors by three to five years. For instance, this could happen for iPhone, iPad and Mac; (2) eliminating obstacles of Apple Watch and Apple TV by offering an innovative user experience; and (3) entering new business fields, such as autonomous driving system.
We expect Apple to generate preliminary results for AR in the next 1-2 years at the earliest and working with iPhone may be the first step.
Notably, this lines up with a recent report from Robert Scoble which predicted a huge shift for the company towards mixed reality and likened Apple's entry to this world to IBM's entry to personal computing.
Kuo believes the AR and VR markets will grow from a combined $40-50 billion in 2018 to $150 billion in 2020, with most of the increase coming from AR.
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