100 Million iPhones Sold by End of 2011? [Analyst]

After setting records for pre-orders on the iPhone 4, analysts began to speculate how Apple's iPhone installed base will clime, and how many new customers they can actually pick up. With the new design, faster processer, new camera system, and the new features of iOS 4, Apple's install base could rise up to 100 million by end of 2011. What it really comes down to, is how many New Customers Apple can pick up vs the amount of current customers who upgrade from their previous iPhone. AT&T’s new tiered data pricing can also make iPhone’s more affordable for people.

She estimates that if 30% of current iPhone owners upgrade this year, Apple will sell 42 million units in 2010. If 50% upgrade, it will sell 48 million. In her model, the iPhone installed base rises from about 30 million at the end of 2009 to 100 million by the end of 2011.
"We believe there are several key drivers of iPhone upgrades," she writes. And she ticks them off. In her words:
1. Redesigned hardware with many new important features
2. "Stickiness" of the installed base due to App store and iTunes
3. 57% of U.S. installed base is not fully upgradeable to iOS4 (i.e. no multitasking)
4. Early upgrade incentives from AT&T
5. Maturation of the installed base.

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