Apple is Potentially Facing a Very Rough Two-Year Period [Analyst]

Posted February 28, 2013 at 12:07am by iClarified | Please help us and submit a translation by clicking here | 9061 views

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said that 'Apple is potentially facing a very rough two-year period' in a note to investors today.

FORTUNE posts highlights from the note:

Apple's capital expenditures are likely to double in the next two years (adding $10 billion per year, he estimates) as the company is forced to finance its chip and touchscreen suppliers' factory expansions and build up its iCloud and online service centers.
Apple's cash balance could be reduced by $10 billion, and $40 billion of the company's cash collections could be deferred over the next two years if Apple plans to expand its iPhone sales into pre-pay countries like India by replacing its carrier subsidy model with an arrangement where it lends the money to buy the phones directly to consumers.
International iPhone sales are slowing dramatically especially in lower GDP per capita markets, says Misek. "We believe alternative distribution models like those in India can improve growth and the financing receivables will largely be securitizable; however, increased capital commitments would make a quick change more difficult should sales fall."
The rise in so-called whitebox smartphones sales will accentuate what he calls "Apple's product gap." He points to Glonee and Konka, both of which he says are offering handsets that are similar to the Samsung Galaxy S3 but for a fraction of the price. "We think these high-end white box phones are forcing Apple to invest in next-gen screen technology in order to differentiate."

Notably, Apple is widely rumored to be working on a lower-cost iPhone to address emerging markets with analysts Katy Huberty and Brian White expressing confidence in the possibility.

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zeppy - February 28, 2013 at 2:26pm
Payback. F u Apple. The company deserves all the bad things possible that can happen to them as just punishment for all of their evil practices. Praise be to justice and let Apple become less rotten and mend their evil greedy filthy ways.
VinnyG - February 28, 2013 at 3:00pm
Intelligent comment..... Not !
zeppy - February 28, 2013 at 3:07pm
True Comment... Yes ! Deny all you want the fact that Apple is heading for a well-deserved dark future.
AML - February 28, 2013 at 4:50pm
I think you're talking about Sony.
zeppy - March 1, 2013 at 7:48am
Sony has done as poorly as Apple in terms of limiting users, locking down their products unnecessarily. Sony's value as a company has plummeted over time as a result of this combined with Samsung and LG being more nimble, adaptive while driving value lower cost products into the hand and homes of consumers. Apple used to be loved and admired by so many including me. Now only hatred based on Apple's ugly truth remains.
Hugh Massengill - February 28, 2013 at 2:17pm
If true, so what? A company like Apple, which grew from amazing innovation and has stayed at the front with dogged determination, has competition. That is the nature of the markets, and the challenge for all tech companies. The fact that the challenge from so many competitors is so great can only mean good things for those who value Apple products. And if one wants a cheap knockoff, a Zune or whatever, the future will certainly provide that. But the next article could be about the terrible problem Samsung and Sony etc. have in that they are being pressed between Apple at the top and the many companies from the bottom. Hugh Massengill
davidknows - February 28, 2013 at 8:17am
even with jailbreak iphones are no competition for samsung because samsung hardware is way superior, larger screen, dual sim, call recording .... not to mention samsung does not sue you for modifying your own phone
sribas - February 28, 2013 at 8:39am
If you believe a mobile phone is better than another taking only hardware considerations, then you have been lost for the last 6 years. Phones are about services now, not about dual sims or call recordings, that's bs. The iphone 1 was already inferior to the other high end phones by that time, and still kicked ass to their competitors. Why? Because it worked. If the whole enviroment is broken, so as Android is, then I don't care about how many sims I can put in my phone (which, by the way, is a really stupid feature that you're going to use 4 times).
thetruth - February 28, 2013 at 8:47am
Saying "better hardware makes Samsung better" is like saying that just because the Mustang GT has more horsepower, it is better than a BMW M3. Apple = the M3. With less "horsepower" it beats the Galaxy S3 in benchmarks because Apples iOS is way better built than Samsung's TouchPiss. Not to mention, Apple is still supporting a 4 year old phone with updates while Samsung can't even do it for their galaxy S2.
andrewj - February 28, 2013 at 9:40am
bmws are for snobs with dysfunctional penises and you fanboys are no different than Bill Gates who is belived said to its windows programmers "if you can't make it work right make it look nice". Apple does not support 4year phones consider how they dropped iphone 3g support plus they just clog older phones with useless features like passbook or siri making them run so slowly you have to upgrade to be able use basic functions, make a call that is. Not to mention forcing you to buy special cables is very unecological and pretty much constitues extortion. Pathetic claims about 3.5 mm jack and what about sims you cannot interchange ... pathetic
sribas - February 28, 2013 at 12:01pm
This last answer is so lame I don't even have arguments to fight it.
fuuk it - February 28, 2013 at 6:02am
If they stop fuucking around from blocking the jailbreak.Maybe people are going to buy more products. With Samsung galaxy s3 you dont have to jailbreak it to tweak your device, We have to jailbreak our device just change that damn fonts or our keyboard
Odedo1 - February 28, 2013 at 12:34am
finally someone agrees with what I was talking about for over a year now.
curtix - February 28, 2013 at 1:56am
I'm right there with ya bud. More peoples eyes will open soon.
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