When the U.S. Smartphone Market Saturates 68% of Americans Will Be Using an iPhone [Analyst]

When the U.S. Smartphone Market Saturates 68% of Americans Will Be Using an iPhone [Analyst]

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Asymco analyst Horace Dediu estimates that when the U.S. smartphone market saturates that 68% of Americans will be using an iPhone.

As you can see in the chart below, the market follows a predictive logistic function (thin blue line). Notably, the iPhone closely follows the same pattern as the market (red line).

Dediu suggests that we can forecast the iPhone's growth by extending the line to the point where the U.S. market reaches saturation.

We also know from the plot of the market that F = .91 is reached around February 2017. So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US. Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017.

Check out the chart below for more details...

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When the U.S. Smartphone Market Saturates 68% of Americans Will Be Using an iPhone [Analyst]
Internethotspot - December 18, 2013 at 6:28am
Morons aren't even taking Android into consideration even though its growth is EXPONENTIALLY more than Apple growth, obviously replacing iCrap with Android.
K - December 18, 2013 at 11:50am
Well I went from crapdroid to ios 7, after hearing what "following" and tablet like phones are like with them, never looked back, just look at benchmarks then you'll see.
Fukjohn Rah - December 16, 2013 at 4:55pm
Hah downhill for lamedroid!
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