iPhone 5S still going strong; next 4-inch likely in 2016. Shipments of 5S are still going strong at 5-7mn units every quarter, an impressive level at such a mature stage of the product cycle. Momentum is being sustained by a more affordable price and the product’s outstanding design. But we still believe it’s necessary for Apple to have a new 4-inch iPhone because: (1) it will be key to extending momentum in the 4-inch category; and (2) it could complete the Apple Pay ecosystem, assuming it is equipped with NFC. We predict a launch in 2016.
It's believed that the iPhone 5c will end its product cycle this fall and the iPhone 5s will replace it as the new entry-level iPhone.
Kuo has an excellent track record with Apple predictions but several other sources have repeatedly said a 4-inch iPhone is coming this year. There have been even alleged leaks of an iPhone 6c plastic case.
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