Production ramp up could be delayed from the usual August - September period to October - November. That would result in 'severe supply shortages' that will last for 'a while' after launch. However, Kuo still believes Apple will unveil the next generation iPhone in September.
Kuo estimates that shipments will be just 80-90 million in the second half of 2017, down from 100-110 million units last year.
While we are positive on potential replacement demand triggered by OLED iPhone, it's too early to determine if demand will shift fully in that direction. We recommend investors keep tabs on the following issues: (1) whether the 3D sensor of OLED iPhone provides an innovative user experience; (2) whether OLED iPhone cancels Touch ID (fingerprint recognition); and (3) whether Apple's competitors launch more innovative products which could compete with OLED iPhone in 4Q17-2Q18.
Notably, the Chinese Economic Daily News believes that Apple will not experience a delay in production of the new iPhone as yield issues have allegedly been resolved.
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