Kuo claims that shipments have declined significantly in November. Suppliers are allegedly revising shipments down by 5-15% in November-December due to lower than expected demand.
As the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a higher share of iPhone shipments, is in stock in the main global markets, we believe overall iPhone shipments have peaked. We think iPhone shipment forecasts will be revised down due to: (1) lower-than-expected demand due to a lack of spec surprises in the 4.7-inch iPhone 7; and (2) shorter times for delivering online orders of 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus, which implies slowing demand. We note that the out-of-stock phenomenon also results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand.
Kuo also reiterated a forecast of possible year-over-year iPhone shipment declines in the first quarter of 2017.