Another interesting chart from Horace Dediu aims to predict how many existing iPhone users will upgrade to the iPhone 4S.
I created a probability distribution (PD) which suggests the likelihood that the phones purchased in that quarter get upgraded in the next 12 months. I created two such PDs illustrated in the inset chart below:
PD 1 is the simplest. It assumes that 90% of two year old iPhones will always be upgraded. PD 2 is a bit more nuanced where it assumes that there is a range of probabilities over a wider period, but with a peak in the 2 year old zone. These PDs are guesses but consider them starting points for debate.
The PD1 assumption that 90% of two year old iPhones will be upgraded yields a estimate of 36 million units. The PD2 assumption leads to an estimate of 36.2 million units upgraded in the next 12 months.
Dediu says while these numbers are assumptions he believes they are pretty conservative and are about half the theoretical maximum.
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I created a probability distribution (PD) which suggests the likelihood that the phones purchased in that quarter get upgraded in the next 12 months. I created two such PDs illustrated in the inset chart below:
PD 1 is the simplest. It assumes that 90% of two year old iPhones will always be upgraded. PD 2 is a bit more nuanced where it assumes that there is a range of probabilities over a wider period, but with a peak in the 2 year old zone. These PDs are guesses but consider them starting points for debate.
The PD1 assumption that 90% of two year old iPhones will be upgraded yields a estimate of 36 million units. The PD2 assumption leads to an estimate of 36.2 million units upgraded in the next 12 months.
Dediu says while these numbers are assumptions he believes they are pretty conservative and are about half the theoretical maximum.
Read More