Demand for the new iPhone XR has been lower than expected, according TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The analyst slashed his overall iPhone shipment forecast by 20% for Q1 2019 to 38-42 million units from 47-52 million.
We have reduced our 1Q19 iPhone shipment estimation by 20% to 38–42mn units (vs. our previous forecast of 47–52mn): We cut the 1Q19 iPhone shipment estimation again for the following reasons. (1) Lower-than-expected XR demand. We have reduced our 1Q19 XR shipment estimation to 15–20mn units vs. our previous forecast of 20–25mn units. (2) The increase in orders of legacy iPhone models cannot offset the decline of XR and XS series shipments because of the low season impact.
In 2018, Apple sold 52.2 million iPhones in the first quarter so Kuo's forecast would be a significant year over year decline. For the iPhone XR, Kuo revised his Q1 2019 estimate to 15-20 million units from 20-25 million.
Kuo predicts Apple will ship between 205 to 210 million iPhones this year. That number is forecasted to decline in 2019 by up to 10% for a total of 188 to 194 million. While unit sales may be down, Apple's increased average selling price could help offset the decline.
We believe that the iPhone ASP could at least keep growing YoY until 3Q19, and it will offset the YoY shipment decline. However, most suppliers will face growth challenges due to iPhone shipment decline. We believe that specific suppliers can grow, thanks to the component price increase or the ability to obtain new orders, but the visibility of the beneficiary list will not be clear until 1Q19 because some spec and order allocations of 2H19 new iPhone models are not confirmed yet.
Apple has resorted to some uncharacteristic marketing techniques to help bolster sales this holiday season but its unclear if they are having a positive effect.
Please follow iClarified on Twitter, Facebook, or RSS for updates.
[via MacRumors]
We have reduced our 1Q19 iPhone shipment estimation by 20% to 38–42mn units (vs. our previous forecast of 47–52mn): We cut the 1Q19 iPhone shipment estimation again for the following reasons. (1) Lower-than-expected XR demand. We have reduced our 1Q19 XR shipment estimation to 15–20mn units vs. our previous forecast of 20–25mn units. (2) The increase in orders of legacy iPhone models cannot offset the decline of XR and XS series shipments because of the low season impact.
In 2018, Apple sold 52.2 million iPhones in the first quarter so Kuo's forecast would be a significant year over year decline. For the iPhone XR, Kuo revised his Q1 2019 estimate to 15-20 million units from 20-25 million.
Kuo predicts Apple will ship between 205 to 210 million iPhones this year. That number is forecasted to decline in 2019 by up to 10% for a total of 188 to 194 million. While unit sales may be down, Apple's increased average selling price could help offset the decline.
We believe that the iPhone ASP could at least keep growing YoY until 3Q19, and it will offset the YoY shipment decline. However, most suppliers will face growth challenges due to iPhone shipment decline. We believe that specific suppliers can grow, thanks to the component price increase or the ability to obtain new orders, but the visibility of the beneficiary list will not be clear until 1Q19 because some spec and order allocations of 2H19 new iPhone models are not confirmed yet.
Apple has resorted to some uncharacteristic marketing techniques to help bolster sales this holiday season but its unclear if they are having a positive effect.
Please follow iClarified on Twitter, Facebook, or RSS for updates.
[via MacRumors]