Apple Could Ship Fewer iPhones in 2016 Than It Did in 2014 [Report]

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Posted April 24, 2016 at 1:26pm by iClarified

In a new research note, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Apple could ship fewer iPhones in 2016 than it did in 2014.

The consensus of analysts is that Apple will ship between 210 to 230 million iPhone units in fiscal 2016. However, Kuo sees a worst case scenario of iPhone shipments reaching just 190 million units, an 18% reduction in shipment growth and 3 million fewer iPhones than the company sold in 2014.

Best case scenario, Kuo says Apple would sell 205 million units, 5 million less than other analysts are predicting and an 11.6% reduction in growth.

Given the fact that shipments fell YoY for the first time in 1Q16, we don't think large-screen replacement demand will contribute much to growth. To sustain growth, the iPhone needs to come up with more innovative features to revitalize the user experience, for example in form factor design, software and hardware specs. We don't see many attractive selling points for iPhone 7 in 2H16 and are conservative on 2H16F shipments. While we revise up 2016F iPhone SE shipments from 12mn to 18mn units, this won't offset overall iPhone shipments decline.

Regardless of shipments, Apple is predicted to under perform the industry and become the only global top five smartphone maker to see shipments decline.

While we believe the high-end smartphone market still has room for growth, the development of a newer, more innovative user experience is a prerequisite for growth," asserted Kuo. "We believe only iPhone will see shipments fall YoY in 2016, for three reasons: (1) intensification of market competition; (2) time needed for commercialization of new user experience technologies; and (3) iPhone needs a makeover (e.g. form factor design) to keep attracting consumers.

Notably, Kuo has previously predicted that Apple will introduce a new all glass iPhone design with an AMOLED display in 2017. You can read more about that here.

The new iPhone 7 is said to feature a dual lens camera (Plus model only), simplified antenna bands, no headphones jack, and possibly a Smart Connector. Please follow iClarified on Twitter, Facebook, or RSS for updates.

[via MacRumors]

Apple Could Ship Fewer iPhones in 2016 Than It Did in 2014 [Report]

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auzzie23 - April 24, 2016 at 8:41pm

Drop in sales has nothing to do with the technology or design of the iphone, as years go buy more and more people own iPhones, at some point of course sales will drop if everyone has one already, new or older iPhone. Selling 200million a year is a big number. Simple math. If a small village of 100 people start buying iPhone, and 10 people buy this year and 15 next year and 20 the year after.... In a couple of years sales will drop till the people who bought in years one begin to replace... And these are not android phone which you replace every year!

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skylander - April 24, 2016 at 7:39pm

I highly doubt the prediction from KGI analyst. I don't think Apple will be the only company that see fewer shipment in 2016. Given the fact the economy in 2016 is already much challenging (compare to 2014) and unstable overseas, I believe Apple (and competitors) will both see fewer shipment in 2016. I also think Apple will see fewer percentage of decrease shipping (when compare to competitors) because iPhone 7 is coming later this year.

chris_UX - April 24, 2016 at 6:40pm

First of all, this is from KGI Securities - which means the primary audience are folks in the financial services industries. To answer your question, growth has EVERYTHING to do with pricing of a security (like Apple stock) because there's a discounting function. A declining growth forecast would imply reduced revenue and a falling stock price as the market price adjusts to lowered expectations..... if you think in terms of basic economics 101 - supply / demand curves adjust to find a new market clearing (equilibrium) price. Markets are fairly efficient at digesting new information which is why the release of new information can quickly drive a price up or down based on the influence of the analyst. Has zero to do with greed and everything to do with pricing of an asset.

gamerscul9870 - April 24, 2016 at 3:13pm

Well it's not mentioned who says it, but to call Apple greedy??? Do you not know others having even bigger shipments??? Billions are involved because of how many people buy the phones and how much is being shipped over to other continents!!!