● Verizon launch of the iPhone: Probability 95% (March qtr) (our est)
● Mac App Store: Probability 100% (Jan. 6 launch)
● iTunes cloud services: Probability 90%
● iPad geographic expansion: Probability 100%
● iPad subsidies from carriers: Probability 80%
● OS X Lion: Probability 100% (summer 2011)
● iPhone (March quarter). We are modeling for Apple to launch a CDMA version of the iPhone at Verizon in the March-11 quarter. The fifth generation iPhone will likely ship this summer with NFC capability.
● iPad (spring). We believe the second generation iPad will launch in spring 2011.
● Macs (uncertain). We have moderate confidence that Apple will release redesigned MacBook Pros in 1H11 and redesigned iMacs in 2H11.
● iPods (fall). As usual, we expect Apple to refresh its iPods in the fall.