AT&T Could Lose 6 Million Subscribers If Verizon Gets iPhone

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Posted May 25, 2010 at 1:09pm by iClarified

Davenport & Company analyst Drake Johnstone believes AT&T could lose up to 6 million subscribers if Verizon gets the iPhone.

“Over the past several years, AT&T indicated that 40 percent of its new iPhone customers came from other carriers,” Johnstone theorized. “We estimate that AT&T has 15 million iPhone customers (as of Q-1 10) and believe that AT&T could lose as many as 6 million, or 40 percent, of its iPhone customers when Verizon begins selling the iPhone in 2011. We are reducing AT&T’s 2011 wireless subscriber additions from 6 million to 2 million (most of these new additions may be lower value connected devices such as eReaders instead of higher value long- term wireless customers), since we believe that Verizon could obtain Apple’s approval to sell and provide wireless service for the iPhone as early as mid-2011.”

Digital Daily notes that there are two things that could prevent this from happening.

1) Early Termination Fees - Its very interesting that AT&T nearly doubled their ETFs just days ago.
2) Family Talk/Business Plans - Digital Daily says 80% of AT&T's customers are on these plans which would make it difficult to switch.

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AT&T Could Lose 6 Million Subscribers If Verizon Gets iPhone

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Rick - May 26, 2010 at 1:16am

Image the bandwidth that would free up. Loosing 6 million maybe the best thing for AT&T

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fenrry - May 25, 2010 at 2:37pm

...ROFL...yeah, like will ever happen, EVDO is dead and the future on the Verizon is as good as Sprint, closed standards only good in the US and that my friends is why Mapple will say no to Verizon or Sprint, reason why Bellus here in Canada moved from EVDO, because there is no future on that!

madcow - May 25, 2010 at 2:35pm

I doubt it'll happen. Every year it's the same rumor. Last year the evidence was ppiling up to the very day of the event where verizon supposedly had office members in a large meeting for a big announcement. Nothing happened. shocker. Anyhow yes it does have better coverage but 2 things worry me. 1. How will that coverage hold up if it gets hammered by people switching and/or new subscribers. It's what happened to at&t. 2. simultaneous voice and data is huge. Verizon does not have that. I'll stick with att. If verizon did get it then att service should increase dramatically.

JDavila - May 25, 2010 at 4:22pm

Totally agree with you: Simultaneous voice+data is priceless. Technology based on the majority of standards is the right path (and logical) to follow. In this particular case, the vast majority of mobile companies in the world (set aside the US) are using GSM as a base standard, not CDMA/EVDO. As long as they can deliver any experience that surpasses the one offered until today, it can roam to any network. For the time being, no carrier anywhere was 100% ready for something NONE had before. The iPhone was a new breed on its own, and no one had the certainty of how big the impact on any network would be. There goes my 2.

Jay - May 25, 2010 at 1:29pm

How do you find out if Verizon has 3G coverage in your area. Their data Maps dont say much.

samK - May 25, 2010 at 1:22pm

verizon effing ROCKS! i always hated on my verizon friends who gets signal in the basement... if you're serious about your service, i think it's worth it to pay the fee and switch over.

Mateen - May 25, 2010 at 1:22pm

Won't happen

John - May 26, 2010 at 12:32am

Agree I here the same "rumor" every year