Another interesting chart from Horace Dediu aims to predict how many existing iPhone users will upgrade to the iPhone 4S.
I created a probability distribution (PD) which suggests the likelihood that the phones purchased in that quarter get upgraded in the next 12 months. I created two such PDs illustrated in the inset chart below:
PD 1 is the simplest. It assumes that 90% of two year old iPhones will always be upgraded. PD 2 is a bit more nuanced where it assumes that there is a range of probabilities over a wider period, but with a peak in the 2 year old zone. These PDs are guesses but consider them starting points for debate.
The PD1 assumption that 90% of two year old iPhones will be upgraded yields a estimate of 36 million units. The PD2 assumption leads to an estimate of 36.2 million units upgraded in the next 12 months.
Dediu says while these numbers are assumptions he believes they are pretty conservative and are about half the theoretical maximum.
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Comments (3)
Comments are closed for this article.
0
Lm - October 11, 2011 at 8:31pm
This is bullshit! They assume that everybody is 100% satisfied with iphone and will upgrade. Dont they take into account people like me that are upgrading to something other than iphone?
I cant believe money is being wasted paying people working on such pointless predictions!
0
Boywonda - October 11, 2011 at 8:00pm
64GBS here I come. I need the extra space so desperately. Sick of having to delete thing over and over again to make room. I have 2.5GBS left *sniff*
0
Kinna - October 11, 2011 at 7:02pm
May I suggest that a factor that should be included the total disappointment factor that this is just an upgrade and that the rumor mongers and pundits were way off target with the new designed 5 and I won't upgrade until a completely new model arrives. Boycott Apple until they produce something fresh don't be a lemming and follow the rest
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