It's estimated that 80-90% of early pre-orders are for the iPhone 14 Pro or iPhone 14 Pro Max, which is very positive for ASPs. The heavy Pro/Max mix is also expected to continue with China and could cause shortages by late September or early October. Pre-order ship times have already slipped to late October for many models.
We believe the initial order for 90 million iPhone 14 units out of the gates with Asian suppliers has stayed firm based on our recent checks and will be roughly roughly flat with iPhone 13 despite the macro storm clouds building. Initial pre-order trends are ahead of expectations and a positive sign for Cook & Co. out of the gates. This speaks to the underlying demand story that Apple anticipates for this next iPhone release with our estimates that 240 million of 1 billion iPhone users worldwide have not upgraded their phones in over 3.5 years. In particular we believe Apple is expecting another heavy iPhone Pro and Pro Max mix shift which is a clear positive for ASPs heading into FY23.
Additionally, Ives notes that the baseline of 220 million units sold in fiscal 2023 is a low bar for Apple, given pent up demand. In China, about 30% of customers are in the window for an upgrade cycle and many will likely choose iPhone 14 Pro/Max over iPhone 14. Carriers are also expected to launch significant promotions this month to spur sales.
If you haven't already pre-ordered your iPhone 14, we'd advise doing so soon. Pre-orders are also live for Apple Watch Ultra, Apple Watch Series 8, Apple Watch SE 2, and Apple AirPods 2.
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