Apple Trims 2026 Shipments as DRAM Shortage Continues [Kuo]

Apple has scaled back its 2026 hardware shipment plans as the ongoing DRAM shortage continues to constrain production, according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.



In his latest post on X, the analyst disputed a recent media report claiming tight DRAM supply had left TSMC holding about $1 billion worth of Apple 2nm processor work-in-process awaiting packaging. He confirmed Apple had reduced its hardware shipment plans because of memory shortages, but said the company plans processor production at TSMC based on the amount of memory expected to be available, rather than having the foundry build large amounts of excess work-in-process inventory ahead of time.


Apple schedules processor production at TSMC at least three months in advance based on expected memory availability, Kuo explained. He argued that if the bottleneck is not at TSMC, there is little benefit to building excess work-in-process inventory. As a result, he said he is unaware of any scenario in which TSMC accumulated roughly $1 billion worth of Apple processor work-in-process while waiting for memory before packaging could proceed.

He also pointed to TSMC's latest earnings call, noting the company's increase in inventory days was primarily the result of its 2nm production ramp rather than a backlog of Apple-specific wafers. Apple is not the only customer using TSMC's 2nm process this year, with AMD and MediaTek also producing chips on the node. TSMC's inventory figures also include finished goods, raw materials, supplies, and spare parts, not just work-in-process inventory.

The shortage stems from memory makers diverting capacity toward more profitable AI data center contracts, squeezing the supply available for consumer devices. The shortage has already affected Apple's Mac lineup—deliveries for the MacBook Air have already slipped, and Apple raised prices across its Mac and iPad lineup in June after Tim Cook warned that price increases were unavoidable.

The DRAM shortage could also limit availability of Apple's next-generation iPhones. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra could launch in limited quantities and sell out quickly during preorders.