My latest survey indicates that the new 14" and 16" MacBook Pro will enter mass production in 4Q22. However, Apple cut 4Q22 shipment forecasts of new models by 20–30% before mass production. The MacBook Pro order cut is a structural risk for the ABF substrate and Mini-LED sectors.
Kuo says it's not common for Apple to cut orders before the launch of a new product during the peak shopping season. That could mean that demand is significantly lower than was expected, suggesting a decline in MacBook shipments YoY in 1H23.
It's believed that economic recession and the decline in WFH (work from home) demand are the main reasons for the order cut. Additionally, the new models will likely have only the M2 processor as their main selling point, a minor update compared to last year's model.
The total MacBook shipment forecast in 4Q22 is cut by 15–20% due to the new MacBook Pro order cut, and MacBook shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 2022 (vs. market consensus of a 5–10% YoY decline).
Kuo notes that the MacBook order cut is smaller than those of its competitors; however, he warns that if Apple's high-end product demand is not immune to economic recession/inflation, iPhone 14 Pro demand could also be affected.