Apple Expected Debut Its Own Modem Chip in 2025 [Kuo]

Apple is now expected to debut its own modem chip in 2025, according to a new report from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a report outlining potential risks for Qualcomm, Kuo notes that Huawei is set to adopt a self-developed Kirin processor in 2024. This means Qualcomm will not only lose orders from Huawei but also face new competition in the Chinese market. The company may start a price war to maintain market share, but that will be detrimental to profits. Additional risks are higher than expected market share of Exynos 2400 in Samsung mobile phones and Apple's imminent move to its own 5G modem.

Qualcomm's SoC shipments to Chinese smartphone brands in 2024 are expected to be at least 50–60 million units lower than in 2023 due to Huawei's adoption of the new Kirin processors and will continue to decline year by year. My latest survey indicates that Qualcomm will likely start a price war as early as 4Q23 to maintain market share in the Chinese market, which will be detrimental to profits. Two other potential risks for Qualcomm are that the market share of Exynos 2400 in Samsung mobile phones is higher than expected, and Apple is expected to use its own modem chip starting in 2025. I will discuss more details in the future.


Notably, a previous report from Haitong International Securities analyst Jeff Pu also predicts that Apple will keep using Qualcomm modems for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. Earlier this year, Kuo reported that Apple was using an iPhone SE as an engineering prototype for its 5G modem; however, it's unclear which device Apple will initially debut its modem in.

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