IDC Forecasts iPhone Shipments to Outpace Global Smartphone Market in 2025

IDC expects the global smartphone market to return to growth in 2025, with shipments rising 1% year-over-year to 1.24 billion units. The firm's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker attributes much of that lift to iOS, which is forecast to expand nearly 4% this year, outpacing the overall market.

The latest outlook marks an upgrade from IDC's prior 0.6% growth forecast. Analysts point to healthy replacement demand and the U.S. government's exemption on smartphones from reciprocal tariffs as key factors keeping shipments steady despite ongoing economic challenges.

"While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for most smartphone vendors," said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC. "Strong growth in the U.S. and Middle East and Africa will help offset a 1% decline in China, where government subsidies are phasing out."


Even with unit growth muted, IDC predicts the market will see a 5% rise in average selling price and 6% growth in value during 2025. Vendors are focusing on slimmer designs, generative AI, foldables, and upgraded cameras to capture consumer attention and justify higher price tags.

Generative AI is a major driver. IDC estimates more than 370 million GenAI-enabled smartphones will ship in 2025, representing 30% of the market. That share is projected to surge past 70% by 2029 as AI becomes a standard feature across price tiers. The forecast comes as Apple works toward its own AI milestones, with advanced personalized Siri features now delayed until 2026.

Foldables are also expected to gather momentum, with 6% annual growth forecast in both 2025 and 2026, rising to 11% in 2027. However, IDC cautions the form factor will remain niche, accounting for less than 3% of global shipments by the end of the decade.

More details in the full report linked below...


Read More