Samsung's Foldable Lead Shrinks as Apple Gears Up for 2026 Debut

A new forecast from TrendForce estimates that foldable phone shipments will reach 19.8 million units in 2025, maintaining a market share of around 1.6% — essentially flat compared to 2024. While growth has slowed, the form factor continues to evolve, and manufacturers are setting the stage for what could be a breakout year in 2026, led by Apple's long-anticipated debut.

Samsung remains the top player in the foldable space and recently launched its Galaxy Z Fold 7, featuring notable improvements to hinge design, crease visibility, and form factor. Still, its dominance is waning. TrendForce projects Samsung's global share will drop from 45.2% in 2024 to 35.4% in 2025 as rivals gain traction.

Huawei is expected to secure the second-largest share at 34.3%, bolstered by strong performance in China. Meanwhile, Honor and Motorola (under Lenovo) are aggressively expanding. Honor's share is forecast to rise from 6% to 9.1%, and Motorola's from 5.5% to 7.6%. Xiaomi is also climbing, with its compact MIX Flip series pushing its share from 3% to 5.1%. Collectively, other brands like OPPO and vivo are projected to hold 8.5% of the market, pointing to a more competitive and diversified foldable ecosystem.


For all the hardware advancements, foldables still face key adoption hurdles. Consumers remain cautious about display creases, durability, and pricing. For those not tied to a particular brand, the motivation to switch from traditional bar-style phones remains limited. Foldables are still seen by many as high-end, experimental devices.

That perception could shift dramatically in late 2026. TrendForce says Apple is on track to launch its first foldable iPhone in the second half of the year, featuring a 5.5-inch external display and a 7.8-inch internal screen. The timeline aligns with a previously leaked product roadmap, and the specs are consistent with other recent leaks. While key components are still being finalized, the device has reportedly entered its prototype phase.

Apple appears to be addressing many of the category's pain points. It's reportedly working on a crease-free display and exploring durable hinge materials like metallic glass, an amorphous alloy known for its strength and flexibility.

As prices fall and more models hit the market, foldables are evolving from niche novelties into a full-fledged product category. TrendForce believes Apple's debut could be the turning point that finally pushes the form factor into the mainstream, bringing a fresh wave of momentum to the smartphone industry.


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