Apple Projected to Hit Record 247 Million iPhone Shipments in 2025 Amid 'Phenomenal' Demand [IDC]

Apple is set to drive the global smartphone market to its strongest year on record, with shipments expected to reach 247.4 million units in 2025. New estimates from the International Data Corporation (IDC) show worldwide shipments rising 1.5% year-over-year to 1.25 billion units — a slight uptick from earlier forecasts — with much of that momentum tied to the iPhone 17.

IDC points to an unexpected surge in China, Apple's biggest market outside the U.S. iPhone 17 demand pushed the company to the top spot in China for both October and November, giving it more than 20% market share. That strength led IDC to revise Apple's Q4 forecast for the region from 9% to 17% growth. Senior research director Nabila Popal described the shift as a "phenomenal turnaround," noting that China was previously expected to contract next year. Instead, Apple is now forecast to grow 3% in the region for 2025. Similar gains are showing up in the U.S. and Western Europe. Altogether, Apple's smartphone revenue is expected to rise to over $261 billion this year, a 7.2% increase.


These numbers line up with recent reports showing iPhone 17 sales up 37% in China, reinforcing CEO Tim Cook's recent comment that the holiday quarter could be Apple's best ever.

IDC's longer-term outlook is less upbeat. The firm now expects 2026 to see a slight decline — about 0.9% — instead of the modest growth previously projected. One reason is Apple's reported decision to shift its next base-model iPhone from late 2026 to early 2027, which is expected to pull iOS shipments down by roughly 4.2%. The trend lines echo recent rumors that Apple plans to stagger major iPhone launches to keep demand steady throughout the year.

The other major factor is an ongoing shortage of memory components. IDC expects the supply crunch to raise production costs and push the average smartphone selling price to $465 in 2026. That will hit lower-priced Android devices hardest. Even with slightly fewer units shipping, the higher prices are projected to lift total market value to a record $578.9 billion.

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