Kuo says the 'worst is soon over' and believes that the shares of AAPL and most of its suppliers are priced in the negative.
Our report published on December 14, 2018, was the first to cut the estimation of 2019 iPhone shipments to 190mn units or less; the current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments (160–180mn units) is much lower than our estimation and we believe the share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative.
We maintain our forecast of 188–192mn units for 2019 iPhone shipments. We believe the downside risks of share prices for the Apple and iPhone supply chain are limited in the near term given that 2Q19 iPhone shipments will likely be better than the market consensus.
Kuo did cut his estimate for iPhone shipments in Q1 2019 from 38-42 million to 36-38 million. This is because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected". However, Kuo predicts 34-37 million units shipped in Q2 2019, higher than the market consensus of 30-35 million.
Improvements will purportedly continue into the second half of 2019 thanks to Apple's trade-in programs, stronger replacement demand, and market share gains in Europe.
Apple's conference call to discuss final first fiscal quarter results is scheduled for Tuesday, January 29, 2019 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. Please follow iClarified on Twitter, Facebook, Google+, or RSS for updates.