Apple is gearing up to release its entry-level MacBook next month, but surging component prices are putting pressure on the company's ability to deliver a truly budget-friendly laptop.
The device is expected to take center stage at Apple's March 4 media event in New York City. According to DigiTimes, volume shipments are projected to begin alongside the launch. Mass production was originally expected to begin in late 2025 but was pushed back to the first quarter of 2026, with volume ramping in March. Quanta Computer is handling initial assembly of the notebook, with Foxconn expected to join production at a later stage. Apple is reportedly targeting shipments of 15 to 16 million units over the next two years, though some supply chain sources caution that those projections may prove optimistic, with the first year potentially accounting for more than 8 million of those sales.
To hit those targets, Apple must navigate a volatile supply chain. Keeping the price down is proving difficult as memory prices have multiplied over the past year. Chinese suppliers are prioritizing domestic brands and have already hit full capacity, leaving international manufacturers scrambling for the remaining supply. Apple has historically been better positioned than most to secure favorable pricing, but the current memory squeeze is becoming harder to ignore. During the company's latest earnings call, CEO Tim Cook said the impact in the first quarter of 2026 would be limited, but warned that the effects would become more pronounced beginning in the second quarter.
Battery manufacturing expenses are also rising sharply. An export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo has pushed international cobalt prices up 161 percent since early 2025. Battery makers are passing those increases down the supply chain, resulting in a 10 to 15 percent price hike for battery modules in February alone.
These compounding material costs raise obvious questions about how Apple will ultimately price the new machine. Early rumors suggested an aggressive $599 price tag to compete directly with Chromebooks in the education sector. More recent estimates place the laptop closer to $699 or $749. For comparison, the current MacBook Air M4 starts at $999, or $899 with an education discount, placing the new model directly below Apple's existing lineup. To keep manufacturing costs in check, the laptop recently spotted in macOS 26.3 code is expected to run on an A-series processor rather than a standard M-series chip.
Despite the challenging market conditions, analysts expect Apple to manage the shortages better than most competitors. Total MacBook shipments are projected to reach 21 million units in 2026, up modestly from 2025 levels, representing growth in a year when global notebook shipments are expected to decline. New processor-driven models are expected to help Apple outperform peers both quarter over quarter and year over year.