The new MacBook Pro will purportedly arrive in the fourth quarter of 2019 and be the first Apple notebook to feature the new scissor mechanism. Kuo believes that other MacBook models updated in 2020 will also get the upgraded keyboard.
We have revised our prediction that the keyboard of the 16-inch MacBook Pro that will launch in 4Q19 will feature the scissor mechanism instead of the butterfly mechanism. The refresh versions of other MacBook models in 2020 will change to adopt the scissor mechanism keyboard, too. We estimate that shipments of MacBook models that choose scissor mechanism keyboards will reach 400k, 10mn, and 16mnunits, respectively.
The new mechanism is said to improve typing by offering longer key travel and better durability, using glass fiber for a reinforced structure. The keyboard will be slightly thicker than Apple's butterfly keyboard but Kuo says most users won't be able to tell the difference.
Apple's new keyboard is estimated to cost between $25 to $30. That's significantly higher than the average selling price of $8 to $12 for a typical scissor keyboard. Sunrex is expected to supply Apple with the component.
Despite several revisions, Apple's butterfly keyboard has continually demonstrated issues. The company is now offering an extended four year keyboard repair program on all Macs with the butterfly keyboard, including 2019 models.
Supply chain sources recently predicted that the 16-inch MacBook Pro will feature an LCD display rather than OLED and launch in October. More details here.
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