We are seeing shortages in many Apple stores with iPhone 13 Pro (Sierra Blue and Gold the most popular), as we estimate right now demand is outstripping supply for overall iPhone 13 units globally by roughly 15% heading into this holiday season. Despite the chip shortage and Rubik's Cube logistics that Apple (and every other technology, auto, and retail vendor) is dealing with we are seeing tremendous demand trends both in the US and China for iPhone 13 which is a positive sign that Apple could exceed selling 80 million iPhone units in the quarter with stronger Pro versions driving higher ASPs. We estimate that Apple is on pace to sell ~40 million iPhones between this Black Friday weekend and Christmas which would be record holiday pace for the company despite the lingering chip shortage limiting iPhone supply globally by roughly 10 million units based on our analysis.
Strong demand will likely continue into next year. Wedbush says roughly 250 million of the 975 million iPhones worldwide have not been upgraded in 3.5 years.
Apple also recently introduced new AirPods 3. Wedbush believes the company could ship close to 100 million units in 2022, accounting for 5%+ of overall revenues for FY22.
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