Apple Could Fall Short of 2025 Expectations [Kuo]

Apple will face challenging hurdles in 2025, including nearly stagnant iPhone growth, according to a new report from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a post today, Kuo states that Apple's 2025 iPhone shipments could fall 8–10% below market consensus.

Even with the new iPhone SE4 (expected to launch around mid-1H25), iPhone 1H25 shipments are projected to decline by about 6% YoY. (1Q25 shipments were roughly flat YoY due to front-loading in January ahead of Trump's tariff policy, while 2Q25 is expected to decline.)


Additionally, Kuo highlights that Apple's smartphone sales in China are declining despite a flat market overall.

In December 2024, overall smartphone shipments in China were about flat vs. those in December 2023; however, iPhone shipments dropped by about 10–12% YoY, reflecting a continued slide in Apple's Chinese market share.

As for the rumored iPhone 17 Air, Kuo predicts that while it may outperform the iPhone Plus it replaces, it won't significantly boost sales volumes. He attributes this to downgraded components, a high price, and an unremarkable user experience.

Kuo estimates total iPhone sales at around 220 million units in 2024 and 220–225 million in 2025, falling short of the market consensus of 240 million or more.


Finally, Kuo reports that his latest supply chain survey shows no evidence that Apple Intelligence has boosted iPhone replacement demand. Despite the initial excitement following its debut at WWDC, interest in Apple Intelligence has significantly waned compared to cloud-based AI services. As of now, Kuo sees no indication that Apple Intelligence is driving hardware upgrades or benefiting the company's service revenue.

For more details, read the full report linked below...

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