Rising Memory Costs Could Cut 2026 Smartphone Shipments, Apple Better Positioned Than Rivals [Report]

Surging memory prices are expected to drag down global smartphone shipments by 2.1 percent in 2026 as manufacturers struggle to absorb higher bill-of-materials costs. New data from Counterpoint Research indicates that a shortage of memory components is driving up production expenses, forcing analysts to revise their market forecasts downward.



The impact is being felt most acutely in the low-end segment, where profit margins are razor-thin. However, the cost of DRAM has already pushed up component expenses for high-end devices by around 10 percent, with further increases of up to 40 percent possible through the second quarter of 2026. This supply crunch aligns with recent data from IDC, which also predicted a slight market decline in 2026 due to component costs.


Despite the headwinds, Counterpoint notes that Apple remains insulated compared to its rivals. "Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters," said senior analyst Yang Wang. While Chinese OEMs may be forced to downgrade specs or cut low-volume models to protect margins, Apple's scale and high-end focus provide significant leverage. This resilience supports earlier projections that Apple is on track to overtake Samsung as the world's top smartphone maker by volume next year.

Consumers will likely see these costs reflected in higher prices. Counterpoint has revised its forecast for average selling prices up to 6.9 percent year-over-year as manufacturers pass the burden onto buyers. This inflationary pressure arrives just as Apple prepares for an aggressive 2026 hardware roadmap, which reportedly includes new iPhone models, M5 Macs, and potentially its first foldable device.

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