Apple Could Ship 25M MacBooks in 2026 as PC Market Declines [Kuo]

Apple is projected to ship around 25 million MacBooks in 2026, potentially becoming the only bright spot among notebook brands as Windows laptop shipments decline by more than 10 percent. According to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple's growth will come despite a broader slump in the PC market as the company leverages its newly released entry-level laptop and aggressive pricing strategies.



The highly anticipated MacBook Neo entered small-volume production at the end of December 2025. Because this timeline ran about three months behind initial expectations, Kuo estimates Apple will ship between 4.5 million and 5 million units this year. Even with the slight delay, that volume would still represent a very strong shipment number for a single laptop model. Production is currently handled exclusively by Quanta, though Foxconn could soon step in as a secondary supplier.


Apple engineers are already working on the next generation of the budget machine, but it appears a major feature has been scrapped. While the Neo 2 was initially expected to feature a touch panel to directly rival Chromebooks — more than half of which support touch input — Kuo notes that recent supply chain checks indicate the second-generation model may not adopt the feature. Luxshare is actively pursuing the NPI opportunity for this follow-up device.

Kuo also reiterated his forecast that Apple will introduce an OLED touchscreen MacBook Pro in late 2026 or early 2027. Following that transition, the MacBook Air is slated to adopt OLED display technology around 2028 or 2029.

Apple may also be using current turmoil in the memory market to its advantage. While competitors face surging memory prices, Apple is absorbing the higher costs rather than passing them on to consumers. Kuo points to the $599 pricing of both the MacBook Neo and the iPhone 17e as proof of this tactic. Rival PC makers will likely exhaust their stockpiles of lower-cost memory accumulated last year by the middle of 1H26 and begin raising laptop prices to reflect higher component costs, making Apple's hardware significantly more competitive just in time for the back-to-school shopping season.

This strategy could also carry over into the fall. Kuo previously noted that Apple plans to keep prices steady for the iPhone 18 lineup. By prioritizing market share over immediate hardware margins, the company aims to fuel the ongoing growth of its highly profitable Services business while positioning itself as a major beneficiary if on-device AI adoption accelerates in the coming years.