JPMorgan Cuts Apple Price Target Over iPhone 17 Demand Concerns

JPMorgan has lowered its price target for Apple stock, with analyst Samik Chatterjee citing a more cautious outlook on demand for the upcoming iPhone 17. In a note to investors today, the firm cut its target to $230 from $245, though it maintained its 'Overweight' rating.

The note suggests that demand for the upcoming iPhone 17 lineup is likely to moderate, partly because of an expected pull-forward in consumer purchases ahead of anticipated tariff-led price increases. Smartphone subsidies in China are also thought to be contributing to this pull-forward effect. Chatterjee adds that the iPhone 17 lineup is expected to be a largely incremental update, which could also temper demand.

JPMorgan's more bearish view on the iPhone 17 is paired with "unchanged expectations for a stronger cycle in iPhone 18 series," which the note ties to the launch of a foldable smartphone and "further progress in relation to AI features that have been long awaited and delayed." This leads to a moderated growth forecast for fiscal year 2026, which JPMorgan says will "set up for a stronger pace of revenue growth in FY27."


As for tariffs, the note says Apple's "swift change in iPhone assembly supply chain to India" will likely limit the hit to gross margins. Still, JPMorgan expects tariffs will drive the company to "take price increases which will limit volume drivers for the upcoming iPhone 17 cycle."

In conjunction with the moderated demand forecast, JPMorgan is also "lowering our valuation multiple to modestly below the current trading multiple to reflect the likelihood of downside to earnings estimates in the medium-term." Still, the note indicates that near-term demand drivers remain robust due to this same pull-forward and support from subsidies in China, positioning Apple for strong third-quarter results.

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