The analyst says Apple's chip could debut on 2023 iPhones "at the earliest".
We predict that the iPhone will adopt Apple's own design 5G baseband chips in 2023 at the earliest. As Android sales in the high-end 5G phone market are sluggish, Qualcomm will be forced to compete for more orders in the low-end market to compensate for Apple's order loss. When the supply constraints improve, MediaTek and Qualcomm will have less bargaining power over brands, resulting in significantly higher competitive pressure in the mid-to low- end market.
Apple was forced to sign a deal with Qualcomm to supply 5G modems after Intel failed to deliver a viable chip on time. Intel then shut down its mobile modem business, ultimately selling the division to Apple for an estimated $1 billion.
In 2019, a report claimed that Apple had set an aggressive timeline of 2022 for the launch of its own modem. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, a delay to 2023 or even later is unsurprising.
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