Foldable iPhone Shipments May Lag Into 2027 as AI Pressure Mounts on Apple [Kuo]

Apple realized back in 2023 that it was falling behind on the artificial intelligence shift, and that realization reportedly kickstarted a more aggressive push for innovation within the iPhone lineup. TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo describes this as crisis-driven innovation, identifying it as the primary catalyst for both the iPhone Air released this year and the foldable iPhone slated for 2026.



Because Apple typically operates on longer development cycles than its competitors, the iPhone Air was essentially the limit of what the company could redesign in time for a 2025 launch. While that device slimmed down the form factor, Kuo suggests the more substantial changes to the user experience won't arrive until 2026.


Interestingly, on-device AI hasn't actually translated into hardware sales just yet. The iPhone 17 is selling better than expected, despite Apple barely mentioning AI during the launch event. The problem is that rapid progress in cloud-based AI is raising user expectations faster than mobile hardware can keep up, creating a gap between what users want and what a phone can do locally.

That gap puts a lot of pressure on Apple to showcase significant improvements to Siri and Apple Intelligence by WWDC 2026. To bridge the divide, Kuo believes Apple may have to deepen its reliance on Google's Gemini in the short term, even as it continues working on its own in-house models.

As for the hardware to display all this, the foldable iPhone is apparently running behind schedule. While an announcement is still expected in the second half of 2026, production yields and ramp-up issues mean smooth shipments might not happen until 2027. Kuo notes that the larger screen real estate on a foldable is viewed internally as a major advantage for multimodal AI interactions.

Looking much further down the road, the analyst sees smart glasses with displays eventually replacing screens entirely. However, the technology and business models needed to support that transition likely won't mature until 2028 or later.


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