Apple Captured 93% of Smartphone Profits in Q4 [Analyst]
Posted February 9, 2015 at 10:37pm by iClarified
Apple captured 93% of smartphone profits in Q4, according to a new report from Canaccord Genuity. Analyst Mike Walkley has raised his price target on AAPL to $145 from $135 and says that market data suggests continued strength for the iPhone 6 upgrade cycle.
Walkley also predicts that by the end of 2018 Apple may have one third of all smartphone users.
We believe the strong iPhone 6 replacement sales should continue during C’15, as we estimate only 15% of the current estimated 404M iPhone installed base has upgraded to the new devices. We also anticipate continued strong share gains for the larger screen iPhones from high-tier Android smartphones during C’15 driving strong growth in the iPhone installed base and model the iPhone installed base growing to 487M subscribers exiting C’15 up 20% Y/Y. Longer term, we anticipate a gradually moderating rate of growth for the installed base from C’16 through C’18 and estimate 650M iPhone users exiting C’18. We note this base would only represent 1/3rd of an estimated 1.82B global premium smartphone subscribers anticipated by C’18. Finally, we anticipate steady long-term iPhone replacement sales within this growing iPhone installed base, and we believe this combined with our modest installed base growth expectations position Apple for steady sales of roughly 210M-215M iPhone units annually between C2015 to C2018.
As you can see in Walkley's chart below, it's calculated that Apple accounted for a vast majority of Q4 profits with Samsung getting the remaining profit. The other venders operate at almost no profit or negative.
Take a look at the chart below for more details...
Read More
Walkley also predicts that by the end of 2018 Apple may have one third of all smartphone users.
We believe the strong iPhone 6 replacement sales should continue during C’15, as we estimate only 15% of the current estimated 404M iPhone installed base has upgraded to the new devices. We also anticipate continued strong share gains for the larger screen iPhones from high-tier Android smartphones during C’15 driving strong growth in the iPhone installed base and model the iPhone installed base growing to 487M subscribers exiting C’15 up 20% Y/Y. Longer term, we anticipate a gradually moderating rate of growth for the installed base from C’16 through C’18 and estimate 650M iPhone users exiting C’18. We note this base would only represent 1/3rd of an estimated 1.82B global premium smartphone subscribers anticipated by C’18. Finally, we anticipate steady long-term iPhone replacement sales within this growing iPhone installed base, and we believe this combined with our modest installed base growth expectations position Apple for steady sales of roughly 210M-215M iPhone units annually between C2015 to C2018.
As you can see in Walkley's chart below, it's calculated that Apple accounted for a vast majority of Q4 profits with Samsung getting the remaining profit. The other venders operate at almost no profit or negative.
Take a look at the chart below for more details...
Read More